Source: Large Number of Price Recall Signatures Failing on Occupation Info; Thao Names Chief as 2 Police Commissioners Resign

Significant Number of Price Recall Signatures Failing on Occupation, Registration Status but Ultimate Outcome Still Unknown

The Oakland Observer has obtained credible information on the current DA Pamela Price recall count from a source with direct knowledge. According to the source, with less than half of the signatures verified, the ratio of rejected to non-rejected signatures hovers around the same percentage found in the Registrar of Voters [ROV] statistical sample completed on March 14. The data shows that if the signature threshold is reached it may only be by a thin margin, despite the proponents' collection of 50K signatures more than needed. Nearly 40% of the signatures are failing verification on a combination of charter-specific requirements and state rules. The source shared the information with OO on condition of anonymity.

ROV Failed Charter's 10-Day Verification Deadline

As the current count makes obvious, a full count of the 123,374 signatures submitted by the recall proponents will take the Registrar weeks to complete. But the current Alameda County [ALCO] charter rules required a finding on whether the valid signatures reached the required threshold of 73,195 within ten days of the date they were received, March 4th.

To avoid missing the charter’s 10-day verification deadline completely by relying on a manual count of the signature, Registrar Tim Dupuis initially relied on a statistical methodology used in state law for local races. The ROV counted a 5% sample and projected the outcome of the count based on the total of verified signatures in the sample. In the state rules, any sample count between 90% and 110% of the threshold necessary for a recall is deemed to lack the confidence necessary to declare success or failure—anything in that margin triggers a hand count and verification of the signatures. To meet the 10-Day deadline with the state method, Dupuis would have had to find that over 110% of the signatures were valid or fewer than 90% were. Dupuis effectively gambled that the signatures would either come in woefully deficient or in plentiful excess to meet the 10-day deadline, because any other finding would fail to verify the count and that would put the ROV in violation of the charter.

But Dupuis lost that gamble. The signatures in the 5% sample yielded 102% of the necessary threshold—well short of the confidence necessary to make a definitive declaration. At that point on March 14th, the ROV chose to move to a full count, despite the fact that no such action is allowed by the charter after the ten days have elapsed. The move also obviates the right of the proponents to spend another ten days gathering signatures if they fail to obtain the threshold after a first count.

Majority of Rejected Signatures Lack Occupation Info or Voter Registration in Full Count

The current count is still under 50% of the total, according to the source—that’s a number too small to make valid inferences about the final count of valid signatures. The count must also be rechecked and counted after the preliminary total count is completed. So far, the proportion of verified to rejected signatures is about the same as what was found in the ROV's 5% sample count, however. But information from the source has revealed other significant details.

—Signatures by non-registered voters account for about 10% of the total count so far. More than a quarter of the signatures rejected by the Registrar so far are from non-registered voters.

—Signatures missing the occupation line account for about 20% of the count so far. Over half of the signatures that were rejected have been thrown out on the basis of a charter-based rule that does not exist in the state rules, the requirement that the signer provide their occupation.

Grisham and Chan Fought Charter-Changing Ballot Measure That Removes Occupation Requirement

The extraordinary number of signatures being thrown out on the occupation information is somewhat ironic, given that Brenda Grisham and Carl Chan, the principal officers for the Recall effort, ardently protested efforts by the ALCO BOS to pass legislation for the ballot measure eliminating the charter rules.

Most of the paid signature gatherers for the recall also collected signatures for state and other ballot measures that have no occupation requirement, and the addition of the occupation line may have seemed of minor importance to both gatherers and signers. But the occupation entry is by law required for a signature to be counted as valid in the current charter rules—and the source confirms that the signatures are considered invalid by the registrar if they lack the information.

Measure B has more than enough votes to pass as of this writing, and it will eliminate the Charter process once the outcome is certified, but that is still several weeks away, and will likely have no effect on the current phase of verifying signatures. The occupation rule could be the difference between a recall election and a multi-million dollar fail by proponents.

Thao Names Floyd Mitchell New OPD Chief

Mayor Sheng Thao announced Friday that her pick for OPD Chief is Floyd Mitchell, the former Chief of both Lubbock, Texas. The process brings to an end the Chief search and selection process that began under the Police Commission’s former Chair, Tyfarah Milele, as mandated by the charter. The process experienced setbacks, throughout, mostly self-inflicted by the OPC.

In the midst of making the first round of selections a conflict between several Commissioners escalated. Those commissioners—Marsha Peterson, Karely Ordaz and Regina Jackson—banded together to boycott meetings and deny quorum for the Commission, delaying the search for months and scuttling the first round choices made by the former hiring committee. During that period, Milele undertook various actions on her own, convening an unofficial "town hall" meeting to hear community input on the rehire of Armstrong and sending an unofficial slate to Thao that included Armstrong during the quorum-denying boycott.

After Milele’s term ended, the boycotting commissioners returned and assumed the hiring committee roles, starting the process anew. But the process was again delayed when the hiring committee produced—and the full Commission voted for—a slate of Chief picks that included Former Chief Leronne Armstrong and Abdul Pridgen, a San Leandro Chief under administrative leave in his own job, in late December. Thao rejected the slate.

The Oakland Police Commission then spent two months selecting a new slate that included Mitchell, former San Leandro Police Chief Abdul Pridgen, Cincinnati Deputy Chief Lisa Davis and former New York City Corrections director Louis Molina. During this time, Thao told the press, an undisclosed number of candidates either dropped out of the process or declined to participate—specifically because of the Commission’s role in the process. Complicating things further, all of the candidates but one, Davis, had some degree of controversy attached to their previous roles. Pridgen left the SLPD under a disciplinary cloud. Molina's tenure over New York City's jail system was so troubled he was essentially elevated out of the position by his political patron, Mayor Eric Adams.

Per sources, Davis and Mitchell were Thao’s finalists. Thao chose Mitchell. Despite months of criticism linking the delays to her administration, Thao’s charter-mandated timeline in hiring the chief amounted to weeks. The entire chief hiring timeline was under the purview of the Police Commission until late December, when Thao made her first charter-permitted decision in the process.

Mitchell, like several of his competitors for the role, arrives in Oakland with controversy in his record. In Lubbock, Mitchell’s handling of 911 dispatch staffing was faulted for 30K dropped 911 calls. Lubbock reduced dispatch from 9 to 7 dispatchers per shift. The dispatch center called back and reached the majority of those dropped callers, however, about 26K.

The issues likely led to Mitchell leaving the job—Mitchell resigned, but local Lubbock media reported that he did so with a $50K settlement and a commitment from the city to refer to his performance only in terms of his tenure. Thao told the East Bay Times' Shomik Mukherjee that Mitchell owns the mistakes, the result of his decision to downsize the department, and has learned from them.

Regardless of the 911 fail, crime mostly fell in Lubbock, a city just over half the size of Oakland, during Mitchell’s tenure at Lubbock. But Lubbock's demographics are vastly different than Oakland's. Only 8% of Lubbock's residents are Black–over a third of Lubbock's residents are Latino and over two-thirds are white.

Mitchell also achieved some level of fame for making public statements after high-profile issues of police brutality. After the killing of George Floyd, Mitchell lambasted the police involved and marched with local organizations against race-based police violence. He likewise condemned police who were involved in the killing of Tyre Nichols, and said he supported their termination.

Mitchell will begin his role in April.

Two Oakland Police Commissioners Resign

This week, Oakland Police Commissioner Jesse Hsieh revealed at an ad hoc committee that he chairs that he has resigned from the police commission effective March 19th. Hsieh was appointed to a Contra Costa superior court judge’s seat by Governor Gavin Newsom earlier this month and is leaving the Commission to avoid conflicts of interest or appearance of bias in the new role. Hsieh's departure was already expected given the appointment, but at the meeting Hsieh also revealed that OPC Vice Chair Karely Ordaz will be leaving the Commission by the end of April or when the Selection Panel appoints a replacement, whichever comes first.

Hsieh was a selection panel-appointed member of the Commission who was involved in several critical ad hoc committees—notably the committee that helped the OPD comply with state and local laws around OPD military equipment. During recent factionalization of the Commission, Hsieh charted a middle path, declining to side with either group.

Ordaz leaves the Commission after a short term as a selection-panel appointed Commissioner after a full term as a mayor-appointed alternate. Ordaz’ term was mostly characterized by her joining with Commissioners Marsha Peterson and Regina Jackson in a boycott of meetings that cost the Commission quorum for months during the Chief hiring process. Ordaz was made Vice Chair days after her appointment as full commissioner and then immediately assigned to the Police Chief hire ad hoc—Ordaz helped craft the original slate officially sent to Thao that contained the name of former Police Chief Leronne Armstrong which Thao rejected and the current slate that contained Floyd Mitchell.

Significant Legislation Passed by Council This Week

—Alarm System Verified Response: The legislation passed unanimously by Council in the consent calendar will require new alarm systems to have a “verified response” mechanism, a secondary confirmation that a break in has occurred starting July 1, 2024. The legislation was brought by CM Rebecca Kaplan and reflects the reality that up to 98% of activated alarms responded to by police are accidentally triggered, according to Kaplan. Those alarm users that already have an installed alarm system without secondary verification will be allowed to maintain their system without penalty so long as they have fewer than 2 false alarm triggers. The legislation was modified with input from the California Alarm Association [CAA], but the CAA still opposes it.

Shane Clary, the Chair of the CAA government affairs committee spoke out against the changes at the meeting, arguing that "the ordinance has a number of flaws that need to be addressed". Clary is also the Codes and Standards Compliance VP at Bay Alarm Company. Tim Westphal, the heir to the Bay Alarm Company and major local property owner, is also the Secretary of the CAA.

—Ordinance Forbidding Discrimination on the Basis of Family and Relationship Structure: CM Janani Ramachandran’s legislation forbids discrimination in housing and services for residents who have unconventional family or relationships, those living with extended family or in polyamorous relationships. The legislation passed unanimously in the consent calendar.

—OPD Cellebrite Use Policy: The legislation for the use policy passed unanimously in the consent calendar. See here for more on this.

—Encampment Assistance Agreement with Caltrans: The legislation will allow the City Administrator’s Office to create agreements with Caltrans for unspecified aid in evicting homeless encampments. It’s not clear in what circumstances or in what way Caltrans will help the City clear encampments, but the first target for the cooperative agreement is an encampment adjacent to the estuary canal that runs southward from the MLK Shoreline Park.

—Abandoned Auto Budget, Staffing Increase: The legislation passed unanimously and will use $840K of Measure BB funds to add a software upgrade for the tow database from Autura and additional funds for staffing.