Shotspotter's Moment of Truth at Council; Q4 Report; OPD Academy on Pause as Recruitment Fails; Schaaf Settlements Pass, Apportion Penalties and Document Malfeasance

Shotspotter's Moment of Truth Finally Arrives at Council

A delayed struggle over renewing the City’s Shotspotter* contract is finally arriving at City Council Tuesday. What will likely be a difficult, and possibly emotionally charged, deliberation for both council members and public should have occurred months ago, as the Shotspotter contract was set to expire in June and an initial Public Safety Committee meeting scheduled for September. But the contract has been bumped several times since.

The Privacy Advisory Commission [PAC], which by City ordinance advises the City on certain technologies, their efficacy, cost and whether their benefits to the public outweigh associated risks, had by then issued a mostly negative report about the technology. The Commissioners recommended allowing the contract to expire, and stated that the OPD had presented little data to support its claims for the near-million dollar per year system. Crucially, the PAC recommended that the City let the contract expire and use the $1.68 MM biannual dividend to pay for another set of police costs with more proven efficacy given the state of Oakland’s finances.

Among the PAC’s criticisms is that the false positive or “wild goose chase” rate for the alerts has been an average of 78% over the past four years, while conclusively leading to only 27 arrests over the entire four years surveyed. A parallel concern by the PAC was that the OPD was unable to back up any of its claims, even on the most compelling claim, that of life saving interventions. During budget deliberations, the potential to eliminate Shotspotter as a cost-cutting tool briefly came up, but nothing came of it.

Now, as the City’s finances continue into perilous territory, the question may be felt more acutely, but the discussion may become much more complex—as Shotspotter now has the support of community group Faith in Action East Bay. Representatives of the group came to last Tuesday’s Public Safety Committee meeting where the contract was deliberated before going to full Council to urge Council members to renew the contract.

Data is Shotspotter’s Achilles Heel

The discussion at Tuesday’s Committee meeting was strained by the fact that neither City Council nor City Administrator included the PAC’s analysis or report into the legislative packet. OPD’s own presentation is still light on relevant data, and some of its data-driven conclusions run parallel to the facts, and often seem shoehorned and reliant on anecdotes. For example, Ersie Joyner, a former police officer and current consultant to the City, told Council members that Shotspotter’s alert made it possible to collect evidence that led the Ceasefire division to other related parties, and allowed de-escalation that prevented reprisals.

“Additionally, when you start talking about investigations and making [them] more robust, we just had a high profile murder at Defremery Park a couple of weekends ago. The individual killed was a well known affiliated individual, and OPD knew immediately that this was going to lead to additional violence. They were able to collect the [bullet] casings at that scene, take those casings…were able to compare them to other casings that were located, and immediately know that a certain group here in Oakland was responsible for that murder,” Joyner said, suggesting that the knowledge then helped avert sequela violence with Ceaserfire intervention.

But in that case, the murder happened in the midst of a reunion picnic during daylight hours and would have been called into 911 regardless [and likely was despite police arriving due to a Shotspotter alert].

The OPD’s report to Council states that 99% of the nearly 9,000 Shotspotter alerts were not accompanied by corresponding 911 calls—those numbers could suggest that Shotspotter is augmenting police response. But the lack of qualitative detail in the data itself just as easily suggests police are fielding a staggering number of hyper-prioritized alerts—the alerts are considered Priority 1, and require a response if possible—which would take precedence over many resident’s 911 calls for assistance that could be as critical. Likewise, there's little concrete connection between Shotspotter's evidence gathering facilitation and case closures.

"Value of One Life" Argument Complicates the Equation

With so much of OPD’s data proving inconclusive, much of the OPD and City’s argument for maintaining the technology centers around the question of its life-saving potential. The data is also not much help in buttressing that claim, but the overarching question has quickly focused on the value placed on the lives allegedly saved as a consequence of immediate alert response, an extremely difficult one to answer. During the meeting, several members of Faith in Action joined OPD’s representative Lt Steve Valle, acting Captain of Ceasefire, in arguing that the speedy response to gunshots by OPD allowed quick medical attention that may have never come otherwise. Some even said they or their family members lives were saved by the fast response.

“[Shotspotter] personally saved my cousin's life—and also with if we had it at the time, if it was around in deep East Oakland, it would have saved my brother's life, who I watched lose his life around nine years ago,” said Tara Neff, with Faith in Action.

Neff also repeated a recurring theme from the group, that those who live in the areas where the most gun violence occurs—Black and Brown residents of Deep East Oakland—should be considered the authoritative voice on efficacy.

“It is imperative that the voice of those who live in the area known as the Killing Fields, are elevated and taken into consideration over those who are not in a line of fire,” Neff told Council members.

On the other side were those opposing, led by members of SURJ Bay Area, who largely agree with the PAC analysis and further argue that the technology endangers those same communities—some who had also experienced gun violence.

"One afternoon last year, stray bullets from the street tore apart the front of my apartment building. I watched our building staff, Oaklanders themselves, coordinate with the police and clean up crews minutes after almost losing their lives. I know that day ShotSpotter didn't keep us safe. I believe everyone here tonight cares deeply about saving lives and agrees that Oaklanders deserve to feel safe at home and at work. We just have different ideas about how to make that happen. It's time for Oakland to join other cities around the country in saying no to ShotSpotter because it's not worth the cost when Oakland could put that $2.5 million towards things that actually protect us, the programs and resources that people working in our community need to interrupt the cycles of violence, retaliation and trauma that far too many Oaklanders are caught in," Amanda Meyer told Council members.

PAC Brings Analysis and Findings During Public Comment Period

Brian Hofer, who is almost synonymous with the PAC and has been its chair since its inception, used public comment time, bolstered with donated time from other speakers to make the PAC’s presentation.

Hofer argued that answering so many “false-positive” shotspotter calls greatly affects the OPD’s response time to 911 calls. Even when OPD finds a perpetrator, Hofer argued, the majority of the actual contacts are not for gun violence but minor crimes involving the discharge of a gun. Hofer countered that these constant alerts may actually be costing lives as police have less resources and time to respond to resident’s 911 calls for help.

“OPD’s own data shows two to three officers…respond to each alert. So every single day, multiple times a day, we abandon other confirmed calls for services, divert resources away from 911 to respond to phantoms. OPD admits 73% of all enforcement actions are for backyard target practice, so we're not taking shooters off the street,” Hofer told CMs.

Hofer also rebutted the “value of a life” argument.

“[OPD says] if we just save one life, it's worth it. That's not how this works. ShotSpotter diverting resources has led to the loss of life. It has led to millions of dollars in property crime. It has led to millions of dollars in small businesses suffering damages, break ins, things where we don't respond. All of that needs to be evaluated. And under that standard, you will see. That ShotSpotter fails,” Hofer said.

For its part, the OPD refuses to acknowledge the idea of a “false positive”, what Hofer also refers to as a ‘wild goose chase’. At the meeting Valle responded to Council members curtly, “I don’t know what a false positive is.” In a report added to the packet for full Council review, OPD makes a more formal argument on so-called phantom alerts:

“The absence of physical evidence does not indicate a false positive or that gunfire did not occur.”

Both Committee members Carroll Fife and Treva Reid shared stories of their own experiences with gun violence in Oakland. Reid’s son was murdered over a decade ago; and Fife as a community organizer and teacher as a witness to gun violence and mentor to young gun violence-survivors, including her own daughter. But the experiences led them to different conclusions. Reid agreed that Shotspotter is worth the cost if it can save even one life.

“This tool and the revised OPD protocol have been used to save several lives in 2024 alone, including as recently as October 2, where officers responded to multiple shots and found three victims, all of whom are expected, Chair Hofer, to survive,” Reid said.

Fife said that she wants to support technology that brings greater public safety but has doubts about Shotspotter.

“I love everybody who came out to speak up on what you want to see in your neighborhoods, because I want to see that too. I just want to see it in the most efficient way with the best use of our funds that gives us the greatest impact. And I don't know that this is it, I'm happy to support moving this to the full city council so that we can have a greater discussion,” Fife said.

Ramachandran agreed with the PAC’s point of view, that with limited staffing, the constant Shotspotter alerts may be taking attention away from 911 response.

“So this moment, I can't support [Shotspotter], because of the fiscal state that we're in, and in my perspective, the need to prioritize calls coming from Oakland residents in their moment of crisis, who should never have to wait 60 plus minutes for a violent emergency call,” Ramachandran said.

In the end, the vote was split, but the legislation did move forward. The contract now goes to Council on Tuesday for discussion and vote.

FY 23-24 Fourth Quarter Budget Report

The City usually presents its 4th quarter [Q4] revenue and expenditure report for the last fiscal year as a companion to the 1st quarter [Q1] report for the current fiscal year some time in November—and often as late as December. But this year, given the inordinate political pressure on budgeting, the City is presenting the Q4 report early and separately, ahead of the completion of the Q1. It will be heard at an upcoming Finance Committee meeting on October 22, but the report was published last week.

There’s some measure of mixed good news in the report, though it has to be inferred from the data and not directly stated as such in the text, which is overall negative. The City succeeded in reigning in costs to a greater degree than predicted using budget deficit closing method while revenues were also higher than estimated in the last report in the third quarter [Q3]. The outcome is a deficit about half as large as the one predicted in the Q3 report released in the Spring ahead of budget deliberations. But the combined outcome was not enough to stave off some level of deficit—although the total amount is significantly lower than predicted and it's still unknown but copious**.

The report also has a brief prospectus of the coming Q1 report. It notes that the City Administrator has already started preparing some measures outlined in the “contingency budget” now that the payment schedule in the Coliseum sale to AASEG has been changed—though not at the breathless rate claimed by some Council members in recent social media posts. That contingency plan, if pursued to some of its logical conclusions, could mean cuts to both fire and police.

But the story becomes complicated when the brief narrative reveals that OPD is already over spending the budget predicated on the Coliseum funds. According to the report, if the expense isn’t reigned in, police spending may add $30 MM in overspending by year’s end even if the main, non-contingency budget is followed.

195th Academy Delayed Over Low Enrollment Concerns

One of the steps that the City Administrator maybe deliberating as part of a contingency package of amendments to the City’s budget could be the elimination of the 195th police academy—which could save somewhere between $7MM and $15 MM in academy and personnel costs. Under normal conditions, that move would, by the City’s math, reduce OPD by 20 to 30 officers—because an attrition rate of 4 to 5 officers per academy period [24-30 officers] would not be replenished with 18 to 25 or so trainees that would graduate sometime in spring 2025.

But at a Public Safety Committee meeting Tuesday, OPD’s Assistant Director Kiona Suttle updated Council members with new information that may alter that equation. Suttle told Council members that the OPD has so far only recruited 15 trainees for the 195th, and only 8 of those have gotten through a significant proportion of intake paperwork and processes.

The low numbers are even worse, because the OPD has pushed back the academy start date to try to fill the class—the academy’s are budgeted for 33 trainees—but is still failing months later. The 195th was originally scheduled to start in August but that start date has been pushed back to mid-November.

At a recent Police Commission meeting, OPD Chief Floyd Mitchell told Commissioners that the class could be pushed back even further, due to the fact that there was no point starting an academy with “10 or 12” trainees.

OPD’s 194th academy started in June with 33 trainees, one of the highest in recent years—but it's been an outlier in what have been increasingly small starting classes, and low officer production. Classes have averaged under 30 for starting enrollment for the past 5 academies, and the smallest class of the past years, the 193rd, had 22 recruits at the start of training [and graduated 12 officers].

An academy that starts with 15 recruits could lose as many as 6 trainees by graduation day [with a typical 40% wash out rate]—with several more leaving during training producing an almost negligible number of police when accounting for attrition.

The current staffing reality recalls the often-bitter conflict between Council members in 2020, when Council President Bas proposed deleting one academy per fiscal year from the total typical of 6 per biennial budget year, noting the ongoing shrinkage in police academies and the pool of applicants. Rather than reducing the number of police, Bas argued that having academies are more cost effective when held twice yearly, given a shrinking pool of officers. The total 4 academies were initially adopted in the FY 21-23 budget, but a subsequent sudden attrition increase—brought the issue to the fore again. Officers likely left due to mandatory vaccination requirements according to reports at the time—some voluntarily, others ahead of dismissal for violating City rules by refusing to be vaccinated, with some terminated.

While Bas and others were lambasted on the reduction in academies, and accused of defunding the police by corporate media, pundits, police and council members, Thao used the conflict to distance herself from the progressive members of the Council by returning with legislation that would add academies, trumping even Loren Taylor and Treva Reid’s more modest goals. The first academy paid for with the Thao budget change was successful with a higher than typical enrollment—but just as in the current dynamic, a high-enrollment academy was followed by a low-enrollment one. Since then, OPD’s academy’s have grown progressively smaller, and graduated fewer police officers. The trend is part of a now well-researched years-long local and national decline in police recruitment.

The hard facts of the 195th recruitment could affect decision making about where to make cuts in the coming weeks; but both Council and Mayor have shown in the past there's reluctance to accept data-driven methodology for guiding police recruitment investments.

On Return, PEC Settlement Locks in $21K Fine for Schaaf, Documents Record of Finance Malfeasance in D6, At-Large Races

With just days left of his role as Public Ethics Commission Enforcement Chief, Simon Russell brought a settlement amendment he successfully negotiated with attorneys for former Mayor Libby Schaaf back to the Public Ethics Commission for a successful passage. Russell had been sent back to the drafting table several weeks ago by Commissioners over a vague penalty schedule–and though the meeting was again fraught with deliberation over the new penalty structure, the proposal eventually managed to get the approval of Commissioners.

Weeks ago, Russell warned Commissioners that sending the settlements back for more negotiation could mean an interminable timeline that could see the matter end up in court. The issue was heightened by the fact that Russell handed in his resignation within days of the decision. But Russell seems to have been able to wring further concessions out of the parties, and added individual assessments for Schaaf and others. Schaaf will pay at least $21K in the three settlements according to the new structure [several others are still to be adjudicated due to logistical issues, like the need for a board to approve the settlements].

The settlements came close to being turned down again, however, over the fact that the bulk of the penalty, over $320K, will be shouldered by two independent fundraising committees that are largely defunct. In the discussion, Russell was unable to guarantee a way to hold the organizations accountable to the fines, a fact that initially had Commissioner Alea Gage voting no and scuttling the settlements. But in further deliberation, Gage and others were convinced by Russell’s argument that the combined factors of setting precedent for enforcement and the deterrent effect were by themselves worth passage. The approval of the settlements now puts Schaaf and other officials on the record on egregious campaign finance violations that had profound effects on Oakland’s current political landscape.

Also at Council Tuesday:

Special Meeting on Ramachandran, Gallo, Reid AASEG Request: The special meeting that couldn’t achieve quorum due to short notice has been rescheduled as a special Finance Committee meeting. The rescheduling means that the item won’t be heard before full council, although all of the Council members may attend without a vote. The unusual scheduling was created as a compromise by Council President Nikki Bas and will be held at 9am. The City Administrator had already advised the trio of CMs that no report can be prepared quickly enough to address the request, so the report back from the City Administrator will be oral only.

Mayor’s State of the City: The state of the City address is required to be held during the first Council meeting in October. But during the Schaaf administration, the former Mayor called the question by delaying hers on more than one occasion. At the time, City Attorney Barbara Parker revealed that there are no structural penalties for delaying the state of the city address. It will be heard at the second council meeting, at the top of the agenda.

2 MM Homelessness Prevention Funding Agreement with BACS [Bay Area Community Services]: The funds would come out of the Affordable Housing Trust Fund and were already budgeted for the 24-25 budget cycle. HCD states that:

"BACS [and its program partners] have served 307 Oakland households that were on the brink of homelessness. 84% of households served say without the assistance, they would have lost their housing. An evaluation conducted by Stanford University showed 91% of those assisted maintained their housing."

74% of the service population are Black, according to the report.

*after high profile bad publicity in Chicago, Shotspotter rebranded as “Sound Thinking”, but the more popular brand that existed for decades is used here to avoid confusion.

**the report lists $55 MM in additional carry forwards, i.e., dedicated costs that need to be brought over and accounted for in the new budget. But it’s not clear what those are, and if they are necessary in full or part—they’re listed separately from necessary carry forwards. Without some or all of that amount, the deficit is not as significant by itself, though impactful given the current state of the budget.

***Given historical under-spending at OFD and overspending at OPD, it’s a foregone conclusion that the entire amount is almost certainly again police spending.